After the Court of Auditors, it is the turn of the banking profession to take stock of the credits guaranteed by the State (PGE), which have ceased to be marketed since June 30. Until this date, “Almost all companies that have subscribed to a PGE have started to refund”indicates the French Banking Federation (FBF), without any noticeable difficulties. According to FBF estimates, a quarter of outstanding PGE has also been repaid, according to aggregated indicators from the six main banks.
At the end of 2021, out of 647,000 PGE – i.e. 95% of the total – 11% were repaid in the first year, while 72% chose repayment in 4 to 5 years, including the 57 % who opted for the possibility to postpone the repayment a supplement. year. Within the scope of the six main banks, approximately 883,000 PGE requests were made for a total of 145.5 billion euros. The rejection rate remained stable at 2.9%.
very low failures
For now, failures remain the exception. A little more than 300 files were thus examined by credit mediation in the second quarter, which is very low. The Company’s cash flow is still satisfactory, the default rate is extremely low and, according to the Bpifrance survey (July 2022), more than half of VSE/SMEs have used their PGE fully or especially and only 6% fear repayment difficulties.
According to the Banque de France, the default rate on PGEs could barely reach 3.1%, much less than the 7% estimated when the system was launched in March 2020, i.e. a gross loss of 4, 6 billion euros. A rather positive estimate confirmed by the Court of Auditors, which judges, in a report published on July 25, that the device ” allowed to support the supply of credit by banks and to avoid massive bankruptcies of companies in a context of unprecedented crisis “.
The cost of 3 billion euros
In fact, notes the report, of the 137 billion euros granted by banks at the end of December 2021, more than 70% have been granted since June 2020. Small businesses have largely benefited from the system: they represent almost 90% the number of PGE and 36.7% of the exception. The sharing of risks is also well balanced, according to the advisers, and the final cost of the PGE for the state – which guarantees between 70% and 90% of the loan – should not exceed 3 billion euros. It is little for such support to the economic fabric put in haste.
However, the economic context has deteriorated drastically since the invasion of Ukraine by Russia, although the results of the companies are still driven by the dynamics of recovery in 2021. But the concerns are now focused on to 2023, the repayment of the full year of PGE, while the scenario. of a recession in the euro zone is beginning to take some consistency, especially in Germany. “The estimate of the default rate will probably be revised upwards, but we will remain in proportions that are not dramatic”acknowledged the credit mediator, Frédéric Visnovsky, during an interview with AFP on July 25.