Like individuals, whose purchasing power is under pressure due to rising inflation, many investors seem gloomy at the beginning of the 2022 school year, marked by the unfavorable trajectory of many popular investments (Stock market, bonds, cryptocurrencies) and the signs of fatigue. real estate agent. It must be said that economic growth is flagrant, even as central banks tighten their monetary policy to end inflation, thus exacerbating the pressures on the economy and corporate profits. In this most uncertain and anxious environment, Capital and Momentum, the magazine’s investment letter and daily stock bulletin, maintains a cautious and selective approach. Here is our selection of investments to favor this fall, with a view to medium-term investments.
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Japanese stocks should do well
While European and American companies may come under pressure, Japanese stocks may fare better. First, because the economy of Japan, which emerged from the Covid-19 crisis later than us, is doing better than those of other major powers. “Japan suffers less than Europe from the lack of energy, while the increase in inflation is much less marked here than on the Old Continent, so much so that the Bank of Japan has no reason to strengthen its monetary policy (unlike the ECB, which is right). increased its key rate by 0.75 percentage points, editor’s note) “, argues Frédéric Rollin, investment strategy advisor at the company of management of Geneva Pictet Asset Management, which claims to be a buyer of Japanese stocks.
Especially since “the yen is too cheap” (which also benefits export stocks) and Japanese companies, which have a lot of money, could react to the rise in inflation by investing more, which would also increase the financial debt (in generally with a positive impact on the prices of the shares concerned).
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Finally, while stock investors around the world are still largely underinvested in Japanese stocks, “it would be enough for the Tokyo Stock Exchange to start outperforming other stock markets for a long time due to a FOMO phenomenon (fear of missing outor “fear of missing the rising stock train”, Editor’s note) is installed on Japanese stocks”, judge Frédéric Rollin.
Be careful though, stocks are a notoriously risky investment, and Japanese stocks are no exception, especially since the Japanese economy, which is very open and export-oriented, is reputed to be sensitive to the economic cycle global
Health, a defensive sector that benefits from increased drug approvals
Health and biotechnology stocks, whose business traditionally resists well in periods of economic downturn, should in fact benefit from numerous drug approvals from the FDA (health authority for the United States), with “a very extensive pipeline of drugs”. candidates, including very innovative treatments, which benefit from progress in genetic decoding and the growing use of artificial intelligence”, underlines Frédéric Rollin.
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In the long term, health and biotechnological actions also benefit from the phenomenon of population aging, which increases the need for drugs, and from the increase in the standard of living in the emerging world, where access to the quality of health care is better.
Renewable energies, pushed by the governments of the great powers
While oil and gas cause a flow of ink, in the background of the war in Ukraine, renewable energies have a card to play, especially that “in the face of the phenomenon of global warming and the need for the transition energy, and the major powers implement massive means to develop, such as the act of reducing inflation of the Biden administration”, notes Frédéric Rollin.
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Security actions, driven by geopolitical tensions
Security values are on the rise. “The needs of security on the Internet have become clear after the outbreak of the Covid-19 crisis, which stimulated the use of the Internet (containment then trivialization of telecommuting), and due to the multiplication of connected objects and crimes on the Internet”, notes Pictet Asset Management. . In addition, food safety regulations have become more onerous. And governments are urging companies to strengthen their (cyber) defense because of geopolitical tensions (war with Russia, Sino-American dispute, etc.).
Gold, a wild card that could benefit from disappointing economic growth
Finally, gold retains its place in a diversified portfolio. The yellow metal “acts as a hedge in the event of a shock, a greater than expected slippage in economic growth, able to encourage the Fed and the ECB to adopt a less restrictive monetary policy”, which would tend to favor the gold course. , the judge Frédéric Rollin.
If the financial markets seem too uncertain to you, you have to recognize that very few suitable solutions are available to counter inflation. Here are some anyway.
The People’s Savings Account (LEP) and its rate based on inflation
For more secure profiles that want to ensure the liquidity and security of their savings, regulated products remain essential. But with a Livret A rate at only 2%, the real return remains largely negative. “It is the People’s Savings Book that should be preferred for those who can,” advises the economist and director of the Circle of Savings, Philippe Crevel. Its remuneration is in fact modeled on the annual price increase observed in the last semester. It was thus increased to 4.6% on August 1, 2022. And, in addition to a beautiful bulwark against inflation, the LEP also offers total liquidity with the capital guarantee. But you still have to meet the income conditions (only 20,297 euros of reference tax income) to open this product.
>> Our service – Save money by testing our savings account comparator
Always on the side of regulated savings products, if the home savings plans (PEL) are currently to be avoided, due to a low yield – 1% from August 1, 2016 -, keep your plan if you have one. “An old PEL, with a rate higher than 2.50%, should not be closed, even if your bank strongly encourages you to do so,” advises Philippe Crevel. Because at this rate, and without risk, this product is still very attractive.
SCPI, the paper stone still resistant
They were promised the worst at the beginning of the Covid-19 crisis, but they are back out of the game. Over the past two years, most REITs have outperformed, with average returns above 4%. And 2022 will not deviate from this trend given the performance of the sector in the first half, marked by a payment rate (DR, performance equivalent) of 4.20% according to the France SCPI platform. Especially since management companies are often more generous at the end of the calendar year, especially thanks to the realization of capital gains on the disposal of certain assets.
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However, these favorable indicators do not prevent you from being selective. “What matters above all is the quality of the SCPI, which must offer a sectoral diversity of the portfolio (trade, logistics, offices, housing, etc.), but also geographical, to be invested in many European countries”, recommends Philippe Crevel . . As a result, yields potentially higher than 6% for the best products on the market.
>> Our service – To help you choose the best SCPI, benefit from free expert advice thanks to our partner
However, it should be noted that investing in SCPI is a long-term investment, with high entry fees that is recommended to absorb for a minimum period of eight years. For a shorter horizon, opting for participatory real estate financing, or “crowdimmo”, is not without meaning. On this type of investment, which consists of a loan to a company specialized in real estate development or that carries out real estate trading operations, the duration varies between 6 and 48 months at most and appears on average at around 20 months All for returns up to 10% gross (subject to 30% flat tax).
Beware, however, of possible late payments that could increase after the interruption of work during the Covid-19 crisis. As with any investment, be careful not to put all your eggs in one basket and to diversify your risk by preferring several “small” tickets of 1000 euros, for example, to a single investment of 10000 euros.
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Retirement savings plan (PER) and tax-free products
The investments to favor in this new school year are not legion, especially if you are attached to some capital security, it may be appropriate to activate the levers that allow you to lower your taxation. “With this in mind, the pension savings plan is ideal for taxpayers taxed at least 30%”, slips Philippe Crevel. Payments into a PER are actually deductible from taxable income “on entry” and subject to your marginal tax bracket (TMI) on “exit”, i.e. when your PER is released, in annuity or capital . Since your income will drop in retirement, your TMI could also follow the same path and go from 30% to 11%, or from 41% to 30%. Like the income tax, therefore, without counting the unexpected tax advantage that the PER gives you: an ultra-efficient loan at zero. Note, however, that your savings are then blocked at least until the liquidation of your withdrawal.
For the management of your plan, two main options. First of all, free management where you choose the allocation yourself by betting on real estate (SCPI, OPCI, SCI) and the stock market (see our recommendations above), or time-based management, with which your benefit – based on your risk. profile – is insured as your retirement approaches.
>> Our service – Compare the performance of pension savings plans (PER) with our simulator
The side tax exemption, still, some opportunities can be exploited at the end of the year. Economist Philippe Crevel mentions in particular “Investment funds for investment in innovation (FCPI) and Soficas (investment in a film financing company, editor’s note)”. Investments that grant attractive tax reductions, but expose to taking significant risks. “You have to be careful because there are many disappointments,” warns the director of the Cercle de l’épargne.
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